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The impact of changing climate conditions on Malaria transmission

By Pierre Bush, PhD Moderator | 04 Jun, 2017

Dear Colleagues,
As several malaria endemic countries aim at eliminating the disease in the next decade, some of them are using all the tools necessary to achieve the goal. Swaziland is experimenting the use climate monitoring to predict malaria cases, and track the ones that are imported from neighboring countries. See attached article by Ting-Wu et al. (2017).

Abstract

Background
Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively.

Methods
Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland’s National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM).

Results
The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission.

Conclusions
This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

Attached resource:

Replies

 

Pierre Bush, PhD Moderator Replied at 8:57 PM, 4 Jun 2017

Correction: Swaziland is experimenting the use of climate monitoring to predict malaria cases, and track the ones that are imported from neighboring countries.

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